Where are the Black Swans?   By definition, a “black swan” is a very-low-probability, high-negative-magnitude-market-moving event that runs counter to conventional wisdom.  The global financial crisis in 2009 is the most recent example as beliefs that US housing prices could never fall across the country simultaneously led to massive systemic…

Americas   Economic Data for US Q4 2018 GDP as forecasted by the Atlanta Fed ticked higher than last month to +2.7%, with strong employment and wage figures coming into play. However, with the Federal government partial shut-down through January 25th, GDP for Q1 2019 is on the top of everyone’s…

Global Oil Production More-or-less stayed constant as OPEC+ declines were met with US increases. OPEC and Russian production cuts agreed upon at the December OPEC meeting quickly came into effect while Venezuela and Libya produced well under their quotas. OPEC oil supply fell in January by the largest amount in…

Americas   Economic Data for US Q4 GDP as forecasted by the Atlanta Fed ticked higher than last month to +2.6%, with strong employment and wage figures coming into play. In December, US employers added the most workers in ten months as wage gains accelerated and labor-force participation jumped. Nonfarm…